By Leshi Adebayo
Unarguably the biggest happening in the international community right now is the ongoing tension between Russia and Ukraine which some experts have predicted to likely end up in a war.
Global Conflict Tracker has projected an estimation of over 13,000 casualties, 1.5m IDPs(internally displaced persons) peradventure a war breaks out.
Both nations at loggerheads with each other over territorial disputes have not come to a resolution even with diplomatic efforts of the US President Joe Biden to curtail the situation.
But, how did Ukraine and Russia get to this point? What is the origin of this dispute? BlackBox Nigeria highlights everything you should know about the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis.
How it started briefly
Ukraine, being a one-time member of the Russia empire, got its independence when the famous USSR broke up in 1991. In no time, the country moved for total separation from Russia and create strong ties with the West.
But these efforts were frustrated in late 2013, when Ukranian President, Viktor Yanukovych (a Kremlin supporter) rejected an association with the European Union in favour of closer ties with Moscow, which led to mass protests and eventual impeachment of Yanukovych the same year, who was reported to have fled the country as a result of the riot.
Russia responded by marching on to Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula while supporting a separatist rebellion that broke out in Ukraine’s east. Ukrainian government, at the time, blamed this move on Russia, saying they sent in their troops and weapons to back the rebels.
This claim Russia denied, noting that its citizens who were part of the rebellion were just volunteers. The Russian authorities also apportioned blames on the US and its NATO allies for supporting Ukraine with weapons and training which Moscow powers see as a threat.
Even so, the Russian President, Vladimir Putin had said whether or not Ukraine joins NATO, Russia’s military foothold in Ukraine’s border is imminent coupled with the fact that some NATO members had plans to set up military training camps in the country (Ukraine).
What both countries want
Russia, the opposition, doesn’t want Ukraine to join NATO under any circumstances. It demands NATO’s drill exercises to be stopped on its border and also wants them to withdraw from Eastern Europe. According to the Russian government, it wants legal guarantees from NATO and not just verbal assurances, of which the U.S and NATO already responded to.
But the main demands – “Ukraine essentially banned from being a NATO member and a promise that the alliance won’t expand further east” – have been turned down.
On the other hand, Ukraine desires to be part of NATO, although not yet a member as it needs the “unanimous approval of the 30 states that make up the body.” It is, however, recognised as a partner of the alliance.
Is an imminent war feasible?
Although the Russian government had declared that it has no intention to invade Ukraine, placing more blames on the West (U.S and NATO) for aggravating the whole situation.
Putin’s government having marched 100,000 troops to the Ukrainian border was accused by the West for preparing to invade the country (Ukraine).
The U.S’ Pentagon and NATO has already stationed “8,500 troops on standby for an Eastern European deployment and, sent ships and jets to bolster the Ukraine’s defences, respectively.”
The Russian government said these moves only makes the already tense atmosphere severe.
While speaking to reporters on the development, Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov said, “The United States is escalating tensions. We are watching these US actions with great concern.”
Some analysts of the situation have projected that Russia is playing smart as it plans to strike Ukraine severely when the chance surfaces, humiliate the Ukrainian government and prove that the backing of Ukraine’s allies, U.S and NATO were not enough. However, whether a war will occur is yet to be determined.
Other developments on the issue
A couple of plans have been made by the U.S to ensure Russia is unable to carry out its unknown plans, if it eventually decides to invade Ukraine.
The major step is to attack the financial strength of Russia severely by the U.S and other European allies. Some of the plans is the removal of Russia from the SWIFT financial system which enables countries move money from bank to bank globally. This would affect President Putin and Russia on a long-term basis.
Another is blocking Russia’s access to the U.S dollars and imposing exporting controls, which will likely cut them off from the high tech which helps warplanes and passenger jets fly, power smartphones among other things.
Meanwhile, diplomatic talks between the U.S and Russia are underway but no concrete agreement has been made on the dispute yet.
As for the Ukrainians, while some are fleeing the country, others aren’t leaving out the option of fighting — as there is a high possibility of a war happening anytime soon. According to Global Conflict Tracker, some citizens are still yet to forget the war of Donbass in March 2014, which left over 13,000 dead and 24,000 injured, so they are not taking any chances now.
Source: Al Jazeera
