By Ghazali Ibrahim
As Nigeria marks its 66th Independence anniversary, President Bola Tinubu is presenting an economy that he says has moved from crisis to recovery.
But for many Nigerians, the more immediate question is whether that recovery is being felt beyond government statistics.
Tinubu, who assumed office in May 2023, made sweeping economic reforms a defining feature of his administration, beginning with the removal of the petrol subsidy and changes to the foreign exchange regime.
The reforms were introduced as necessary steps to rescue government finances, attract investment and place the economy on a more sustainable path.
Three years later, the government says the strategy is beginning to produce results.
In his Independence Day address on Thursday, Tinubu said Nigeria’s economy had grown by more than four per cent in 2026, while inflation had fallen from its peak, foreign reserves had been rebuilt and the foreign exchange market had stabilised.
The International Monetary Fund has also acknowledged improvements in Nigeria’s macroeconomic position, saying the reforms have produced improved economic outcomes and strengthened the country’s resilience.
The World Bank similarly points to stronger growth and easing inflation as signs that the economy is recovering.
Yet the improvement in headline economic indicators has not erased the pressure facing households.
The removal of the petrol subsidy sent pump prices sharply higher, raising transportation and production costs and feeding into the wider cost of living crisis.
Food prices have remained a major concern, while the World Bank estimated that more than 60 per cent of Nigerians were living below the national poverty line in 2025.
For millions of Nigerians, therefore, the debate around Tinubu’s reforms is no longer simply about whether the economy is growing.
It is about whether economic growth is translating into cheaper food, better purchasing power, more jobs, affordable transportation, reliable electricity and improved living standards.
The administration has responded with measures including a new minimum wage, student loans, housing programmes, agricultural interventions and infrastructure projects.
Tinubu’s government has also highlighted improvements in government revenue and investment, arguing that the removal of costly subsidies and other reforms have given the government greater capacity to fund development.
But the benefits of those reforms have come alongside what the government itself has described as difficult adjustment.
That tension defines Nigeria’s 66th Independence anniversary: a country whose economic indicators are showing signs of recovery, but whose citizens are still waiting for that recovery to become more visible in their daily lives.
For Tinubu, the next phase may be more difficult than defending the reforms themselves.
The President has said the period of economic correction is giving way to an era of “shared and widespread prosperity.”
That promise will increasingly be measured not only by GDP figures, foreign reserves or government revenue, but by what Nigerians can afford with their income.
At 66, Nigeria is therefore celebrating not just another year of independence, but also a critical point in Tinubu’s economic experiment.
