By Osun Decides 2018: Who Becomes the Next Governor?
Amosu Jeremiah
It is a new dawn in Osun State, and the question on the lips of many is who occupies the Government House for the next four years.
As voters walk to the polls today, it is pertinent to analyze the likely voting patterns across the major towns and cities in the state.
The Osun State Governorship election has fielded the total of 48 candidates of which five major condenders are set to capture a fraction of the total of 1.24 million votes expected to turn out today to choose the number one citizen of the state for the next democratic dispensation in the state.
The five major contenders are Gboyega Oyetola of the All Progressive Congress (APC), Iyiola Omisore of the Social Democratic Party(SDP), Moshood Adeoti of the African Democratic Party (ADP), Ademola Adeleke of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Fatai Akinbade of the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
Judging by the past elections, the towns and cities with the highest number of collected PVC include Osogbo, Ile-Ife, Ilesa, Iwo, Ede, Ejigbo and Ikirun.
Voters in Osogbo will more likely decide in favour of APC’s Oyetola because the city has benefitted most from the urban renewal project and education policies of the Aregbesola administration in the last eight years. Besides, none of the five major candidates hails from the town. While Oyetola hails from Iragbiji, Omisore from Ile-Ife, Adeleke from Ede and Adeoti from Iwo, ADC’s Akinbade hails from Ogbagbaa, near Iwo.
In fact, some opposition politicians have accused the APC of concentrating development on Osogbo alone, given the massive infrastructural renewal and beautification project of the Aregbesola administration. But that does not foreclose the chances of other parties from gaining some percentage of the votes as they all have their supporters spread in the entire state. But APC is tipped to score the majority of votes in Osogbo and its surrounding communities. Ede Adeleke is expected to pull a large number of votes from Ede.
The emergence of Adeleke as the PDP flag bearer has sharply divided the PDP faithful. The aggrieved among the members believe that the Adeleke family is cornering the privileges coming to the town even when it is obvious that other qualified people should be considered.
Other reports gathered has it that the emergence of Adeleke forced the former Speaker, Osun State House of Assembly, Hon. Adejare Bello, and his followers out of the party. His followers believe that Bello or other qualified Ede indigenes should have been given the opportunity to emerge as the PDP candidate instead of Adeleke who replaced his late elder brother in the Senate.
The outgoing governor hails from Ilesa. The current Minister of Health, Prof. Isaac Adewole, also hails from the area. It is, therefore, expected that their kinsmen will reward their sons’ selection and successes by voting massively for the APC candidate. One of the major roads leading to Ilesa will soon be awarded for reconstruction by the state government. But Omisore and Adeoti will also corner some votes from the area. While Omisore represented the area at the Senate twice, Adeoti’s party has some juggernauts in Ijesa land. Nonetheless, APC is expected to score the majority votes in the area. Ile-Ife This is the base of the SDP candidate, Omisore.
Ile-Ife has the second largest voting strength in the state due to the Obafemi Awolowo University community. Omisore, who is a former deputy governor and senator, has proved to be a dogged fighter since his crisis with his former boss, Chiefs Bisi Akande and the late Bola Ige exploded in 2001. He was then the deputy governor under the platform of the Alliance for Democracy (AD). He won his first senatorial election while in detention at Agodi, Ibadan prison during his trial over Bola Ige’s murder.
In Iragbiji, Oyetola’s home town, he is sure to poll the highest votes while in other towns such as Ikire, Gbongan, Odeomu, Ila, Iree and Okuku, the candidates will enjoy patronage based on the strength of their parties and candidates. Omisore is popular in some parts of Ikire zone. For being in government in the last eight years, it is expected that the APC will enjoy a good patronage from the voters across all parts of the state.
Ikire is another town with sizable number of voters, particularly when joined with its surrounding communities such as Orile-Owu, Apomu and some surrounding villages. Oyetola’s running mate, Benedict Alabi, hails from the zone. Omisore’s running mate Lawal, also hails from the zone. But due to the influence of some PDP juggernauts in the zone, Adeleke’s PDP is tipped to have a fairly good showing in Ikire Zone.
Oyetola, Omisore and Adeleke are likely to garner high number of votes in the area. Obviously, votes in the zone are most likely going to be divided.
By and large, no matter the outcome of the Osun State Poll, it sure promises to be an interesting one. Be on the look out as Blackbox Nigeria brings you updates as they unfolds today and subsequently from the election.
